If that is n't a wave out there on the horizon , it is , at the moment anyway , a big , Republican-leaning ripple .

Consider this :

-- A new CNN/ORC poll shows President Barack Obama 's standing on terrorism issues is in sharp decline just as voter concerns about ISIS is climbing .

-- In that same poll , released Monday , more and more Americans see the country as heading in the wrong direction -- always one of the most telling indicators of the electorate 's mood .

-- Recent days also have brought a handful of polls in key Senate races that suggest Republican advantages in Kentucky , Arkansas and Alaska and only a narrow Democratic lead in Colorado . Odds of a GOP takeover of the Senate are looking up eight weeks to Election Day .

CNN poll : Key Arkansas Senate race a dead heat

CNN poll : McConnell holds slim edge in Kentucky

`` It 's much better to be a Republican candidate than a Democratic candidate , at least at the moment , '' says veteran GOP pollster Whit Ayres . `` Yes , the Republican brand sucks , but it is the President 's image that dominates midterm elections , not that of our party . ''

If nothing else , the next few days are going to reinvigorate the debate over what constitutes a wave . Smart operatives in both parties for weeks now have shied away from that word -- mostly because there are fewer competitive House districts now than in past cycles .

So , even if the GOP has a great Election Night , it is unrealistic to believe there could be a 30-seat gain in the House , as the Democrats enjoyed in 2006 . Or a 60-seat pickup like the tea party wave in 2010 . This cycle , GOP strategists say a great night would be adding 15-18 seats to the Republican majority ; Democrats are hoping to keep their losses in single digits .

Congress to-do list : Avoid shutdown , go campaigning

But the improving Senate climate for Republicans has reignited `` wave '' talk .

`` I am now expecting a substantial Republican Senate wave in November , with a net gain of at least seven seats , '' the veteran prognosticator Stuart Rothenberg wrote Monday .

Ayres is waiting for a bit more evidence .

`` I do n't see any evidence of a wave like we had in '06 or ' 08 , '' says Ayres . `` But a few more polls like the one you cite could get me to change my mind . ''

In the CNN poll numbers , the encouraging news for the President is that he and the public are largely in sync about how muscular to be in responding to ISIS . A clear majority opposes American combat boots on the ground , but 50 % support using other military force , up from 34 % a year ago .

Challenges to predicting the November election results

But there is this damning finding : 67 % say Obama does not have a clear plan for dealing with ISIS . Plus , only 37 % approve of how he is handling ISIS , and just 41 % approve of his handling of the broader terrorism issue .

Perhaps the President can change those bad reviews with his speech to the nation later this week . Even so , his job approval rating is stagnant at 43 % , and the percentage of Americans who think things are going badly in the country stands at 55 % , up from 50 % in April .

Again , eight weeks is a long time . And Democrats insist they will again surprise us with superior voter outreach and turnout .

But for now , the numbers are compelling : A weak President and a worried electorate are the trademark ingredients of a wave . Or a really big ripple .

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Poll numbers indicate a sizable advantage for GOP in this year 's midterms

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Obama 's approval numbers are low ; more people think U.S. is heading in wrong direction

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A new CNN poll shows voter concerns about ISIS are rising